Global demand for resources has increased substantially since the start of the 20th century, driven by a number of closely related trends. Across the world, countries have undergone structural economic change, shifting from agrarian societies, primarily reliant on biomass to meet energy and material needs, to urban, industrialised economies. The technological advances that accompanied economic development have provided many more uses for resources, and greatly improved methods for locating and extracting them. Coupled with a quadrupling of the world’s population in the 20th century, innovation has underpinned a 25-fold increase in economic output, bringing radical changes in consumption patterns.
Looking ahead, the global population may increase by more than a third by 2050, reaching 9.6 billion. World economic output is projected to triple in the period 2010–2050. And the middle class may increase from 27 % of the world population of 6.8 billion in 2009 to 58 % of more than 8.4 billion in 2030.
Global materials use is estimated to have increased almost ten-fold since 1900, accelerating from annual growth of 1.3 % in 1900–1949, to 2.6 % in 1950–1999, and 3.6 % annually in 2000–2009. Developing regions account for an increasing proportion of global resource use. Whereas Europe was responsible for 19 % of total resource extraction in 1980 and the US accounted for 18 %, by 2009 both had fallen to 10 %. Asia’s share increased from 41 % to 57 % over the same period.
Resource use tends to rise as countries develop economically. However, there is evidence that growth slows or ceases at high income levels, as a consequence of reduced investment in infrastructure, structural economic change, efficiency improvements and the relocation of some manufacturing to countries with lower labour costs.
Consumption of energy resources follows a similar pattern. Cross-country analysis shows a strong correlation of energy use to economic output. Yet in many developed countries energy use has been stable for some decades, albeit at very different levels. In 2012, the citizens of EU-28 countries consumed roughly the same amount of energy as they did in the late-1970s. In the US, energy use per person has changed little in almost half a century, while GDP per person has more than doubled.
Uncertainty about resource supplies can create strong incentives for countries to identify other ways to meet their resource needs, either by locating new sources of traditional resources or identifying substitutes. For example, rising fossil fuel prices, coupled with state efforts to promote alternatives, have incentivised huge investment in renewable energy in recent years. Global investment rose from USD 40 billion in 2004 to USD 214 billion in 2013. Renewable power capacity, excluding hydropower, increased more than six-fold in this period.